IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Elections in Greece: New Democracy party wins with a majority
On 21 May, Greece’s New Democracy (ND) party, led by the conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis won the elections with 146 seats out of 300. The centre-left party, Syriza, reduced by 11.5 per cent from the 2019 elections, winning only 71 seats. The socialist party, Pasok, which is the likely partner for a coalition for the ND, secured 41 seats with a two per cent increase from the previous elections. Under the upgraded electoral system, a party with the majority votes is not granted the bonus votes and requires 151 seats to form the government without a coalition. The ND is expected not to form a coalition, neither with the Centre-Left Syriza nor the Socialist party. It aims to form a single-party government through a second round of elections, which allows bonus votes.

Three issues
First, the elections under Greece’s new electoral law. In 2019 elections, where the voter turnout was 57 per cent, the ND party won the elections by a thin margin securing 158 seats, followed by Syriza and the Movement for Change coalition. ND was able to win due to the 2016 law, which allowed the party with majority votes to have 50 more bonus votes, under the new electoral system of proportional representation, the bonus votes were removed and to increase the turnout, the voting age was reduced to 17. The new law will also allow overseas voting. Due to the removal of the bonus votes from the first round, ND was not able to secure the majority to form the government. Therefore making the second round of elections likely as it allows the bonus votes to secure ND’s position to form the single-party government.

Second, major issues in the elections. In the elections campaign, the ND party’s key focus and strength was the increased investment and digitalized economy which has brought the GDP to close to six per cent. The party has supported the digitalisation of niche sectors such fishery industry to increase revenue, gathering the support of the traders. Increasing the defence capabilities of Greece against Turkey, and addressing the migration were also some of key concerns amongst the people which ND gained confidence to win the elctions. In the case of the opposition party, Syriza focused on the “wiretap scandal,” and rail tragedy, cost of living crisis to hinder the support of ND. This was superceeded as the investment driven economic recovery and privatisation effort of ND helped it to gain support.

Third, the ND party and Mitsotakis. ND party has positioned well by attracting investments to recover the economy from the crisis situation. Greece was close to getting removed from Eurozone in 2015; the party’s continuity for the last four years has helped it to double from the Eurozone average. The new rule of including those in the age of 17 to vote also added an advantage as those between 17 to 24 backed ND with 31.5 per cent of votes. Mitsotakis, who comes from a politically powered up family, has also stood up against migration which has reduced by 90 per cent since 2015. Such long-standing factors in past four years have proved the party’s image appealing to the people.
 
References
Nick Beake and Paul Kirby “Greek election: Centre-right Mitsotakis hails big win but wants majority,” BBC, 22 May 2023
Jack Parrock, “Greece elections: What are the big issues?,” Deutshe Welle, 20 May 2023
“Latest exit poll Parliamentary election in Greece 2023,” politpro.eu, 22 May 2023
Niki Kitsantonis, “With His Party Ahead in Elections, Greek Leader Claims ‘Political Earthquake’,” The New York Times, 22 May 2023

War in Ukraine: Day 451 & 452
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 20 May, the Ukrainian General Staff of armed forces provided operational information regarding the Russian invasion, through a post on Facebook. Russian forces conducted an airstrike with "shaheds." The Ukraine forces also claimed on numerous missile and air strikes, targeting both military positions and civilian areas in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The frontlines experienced intense clashes, particularly in specific directions, while other areas remained relatively stable. 

On 21 May, Ukrinform reported on Ukrainian Armed Forces remarks on the situation in Bakhmut. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar, the Ukrainian Armed Forces held defence in the Litak district. On the same day, Defence Minister Oleksii reported on the upcoming Ramstein format meeting that will address Ukraine's air and missile defense. He emphasized that the decisions made regarding aircraft are significant.

On 21 May, Ukrinform reported on Zelenskyy’s meeting with the US President Joe Biden in Japan. They discussed on collaboration to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities and implement the Ukrainian Peace Formula. They also exchanged views on projects for Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 21 May, according to Kremlin President Putin congratulated the Wagner private military and the regular army servicemen on the battle for Artyomovsk. On 20 May, Wagner group head said: “We’ve taken the whole city – every building – so that nobody could say that we didn’t capture some small part of it,”. The operation called ‘the Bakhmut meat grinder’ went on for 224 days. The regular troops supported the Wagner fighters with their artillery and air support. However, Ukraine claims that the fighting for the city was not over yet. The city has been largely destroyed because of the battle in which the Ukrainian forces were pushed back to the western suburbs by the Russian forces. 

On 21 May, Russia’s spokesperson Alexander Gordeyev, said that the Russian troop thwarted the munition supply by Ukrainian army brigade in the Donetsk area. According to him Russian forces had stopped the rotation of Ukrainian troops near the village of Vodyanoye. He said: "The Lantset cruise missile hit an enemy howitzer near Stepnogorka. Air defense and electronic warfare systems downed two plane-type drones and one kamikaze drone." The forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar and an all-terrain car near Novodanilovka, a mortar near Dorozhnyanka, cars with militants near Malinovka and Shcherbaki, a munitions depot near Poltavka, and enemy manpower in the village of Kamenskoye. 

On 21 May, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said that Russian troops had destroyed an ammunition depot near the village of Stanislav in the Kherson Region. According to him, six vehicles and an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery destroyed along with 15 Ukrainian servicemen in the region over the day. 

The West View    
Responses from the US and Europe     
On 20 May, during the summit, the G7 leaders presented a Communique, where they condemned Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, which violates international law, including the UN Charter. They further called it an act of aggression that poses a global threat, violating fundamental norms and principles of the international community. They confirmed their commitment to support Ukraine until a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace is achieved. In a statement: “Through our G7 Leaders' Statement, we pledge to enhance diplomatic, financial, humanitarian, and military assistance to Ukraine, increase pressure on Russia and its supporters, and mitigate the negative impacts of the war on vulnerable populations worldwide.”

On 20 May, the White House released the conversation between US press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the US President’s trip to Japan, during a press briefing. Sullivan said: “The G7 summit showcased unity among democratic nations on critical issues such as supporting Ukraine, holding Russia accountable, addressing the PRC, ensuring economic security, and promoting clean energy transition.” He further emphasized that the US has imposed numerous (around 300) sanctions on Russia, and expanded sanctions to key sectors. Economic security tools will be developed to address concerns related to coercion and technology-national security intersection. In terms of military support, the US will provide training to Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter aircraft and has been delivering various capabilities to Ukraine based on military consultations. The focus is on equipping Ukraine for a future force to deter and defend against Russian aggression. 

On 21 May, following Biden's meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Japan, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance of up to USD 375 million to meet Ukraine's critical defense needs. This includes ammunition for HIMARS, artillery rounds, anti-armor systems, laser-guided rockets, armored vehicles, logistics equipment, and spare parts. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 21 May, Bloomberg reported on recent ship-tracking data from Kpler revealing a surge in Asian imports of Russian energy used for electricity generation, driven by high demand amid unusually warm weather. Coal imports in April reached 7.46 million tons, a nearly 30 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2022. Both China and India were the largest buyers, accounting for over two-thirds of Russia's coal exports to Asia. Fuel oil deliveries in April and March hit record highs, with countries like South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE increasing their purchases. Analysts expect further increases in energy shipments to Asia due to the anticipated strong El Nino climate pattern, with countries prioritizing energy security over political interests, as noted by Singapore’s head of JTD Energy Services Pte, John Driscoll.

References
“General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Facebook, 20 May 2023
“Volodymyr Zelenskyi held a meeting with the Prime Minister of Italy in Japan,” president.gov.ua, 20 May 2023
“Maliar : Situation in Bakhmut critical, Ukrainian fighters holding defense in one district,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
“Strengthening air defense: Reznikov announces Ramstein format meeting next week,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
“Zelensky, Biden discuss cooperation on Ukraine defense capabilities,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023 “Russia must hand over ZNPP to full control of Ukraine, IAEA-Zelensky at G7 summit,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
“Ukraine pushes Russia “another 700 meters” back from Bakhmut-Ground Forces,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
“Russian forces thwart Ukraine’s attempt to supply munitions in southern Donetsk area,” TASS, 21 May 2023
“Russia destroys ammo depot of Ukrainian territorial defense brigade in Kherson Region,” TASS, 21 May 2023
“Russian forces thwart Ukraine’s attempt to supply munitions in southern Donetsk area,” TASS, 21 May 2023
“Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the President’s Trip to Japan,” whitehouse.gov, 20 May 2023
“Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine,” defense.gov, 21 May 2023
“Cause of Russian export surge to Asia revealed,” RT News, 21 May 2023
“G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué,” whitehouse.gov, 20 May 2023

IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

HUNGARY
Armed forces celebrate National Defence Day
On 21 May, the armed forces celebrated National Defence Day to commemorate its inception 175 years ago. Hungary has been celebrating National Defence Day on 21 May since 1993. A family day was also held for the five thousand soldiers and their families at the Capital Zoo and Botanical Garden. The Ministry of Defence also adopted two Persian leopards to support the cause of national defence at the initiative of social organizations. (“Today's Hungarian Armed Forces + gallery, in the modern sense, was founded 175 years ago,” Hungarian Nation, 21 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU needs to offer an alternative to the global south, says Ursula
On 21 May, Ursula von der Leyen said that the European bloc should offer an alternative to China’s ambitious economic projects for the Global South countries. She also spoke about the EU’s 90 flagship projects in different continents as part of its Global Gateway investment scheme. At the G7 summit in Hiroshima, she urged the EU and G7 countries to use this opportunity to provide alternative funding options to the Global South against the economic projects of China pushing those countries into debt and heavy loans. She further claimed that the Belt and Road initiative is losing appeal because many countries had “bad experiences” with China. China refuted these claims and accused G7 members of abusing trade regulations and hurling false allegations against the Belt and Road Initiative. ( “We must make ‘better offer’ to Global South than China’s project – EU Commission chief,” RT News, 21 May 2023)
 
Iran calls out Switzerland over anti-execution comments
On 21 May, the Iranian Foreign Ministry ordered Switzerland’s ambassador to Iran, Nadine Oliveri Lozano over an anti-execution tweet. On 19 May, the Swiss embassy called out the Iranian government to reduce the execution rate post the execution of three anti-government protesters. Majid Kazemi, Saleh Mirhashemi and Saeed Yaghoubi were part of protests which provoked the death of Jina Mahsa Amini. The three were accused of killing two members of the Basij paramilitary force. The tweet showcased a picture wherein a poster of Jina Mahsa Amini along with Iran’s pre-revolutionary flag was present which in turn made Tehran call out the interventionist nature of Switzerland. (“Iran summons Swiss ambassador over anti-executions tweet,” Deutsche Welle, 21 May 2023)
 
ITALY
SpaceX and Unipol Gruppo to help rescue efforts in flood-hit region
On 20 May, SpaceX and Italy’s Unipol Gruppo decided to rescue people affected by the floods. SpaceX will position its Starlink satellite to provide coverage of flood-hit Emilia-Romagna and Unipol Gruppo will make it accessible to rescuers, hospitals and the public. The floods caused due to a torrential downpour have killed 14 people and displaced 36,000 people. Rescue operations are being obstructed by the weather and phone lines are hindered. The new initiative will make rescuing easier. (Gianluca Semararo, “Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Italy’s Unipol join forces to help Italians hit by flooding,” Reuters, 21 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Defender Europe 2023 drills expand to the Western Balkans
On 21 May, Defender Europe 2023, NATO’s largest international military exercise reached Kosovo to expand further into the Western Balkans. Started in April, it will continue till June 2023 at several other places in Europe.  Kosovo’s Defence Minister Armend Mehaj expressed his intentions to join NATO following its arrival. The United States European Command (EUROCOM) will lead the exercise, and high-ranking officials, including President Albin Kurti, will attend the opening ceremony. More than 7,000 troops from the US and 17,000 from 20 allied and partner states are expected to participate in the drills, with Kosovo’s 1300- contingent the largest one. (“Western Balkans Phase of NATO Defender Europe 2023 Drills Starts in Kosovo,” Sputnik, 21 May 2023)

Estonia and Latvia to acquire air defence system from Germany
On 21 May, according to the Estonian Defence Ministry, Estonia and Latvia are to commence negotiations with Germany’s Diehl Defence to purchase air defence systems. According to Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur, Estonia must possess operational air defence systems by 2025 and so ideally the systems must reach by 2024. The purchase will be headed by Estonia Centre for Defence Investment. The countries aim to buy medium-range air defence systems like Iris-T, a surface-to-land missile. The details regarding price, capabilities, personnel, and training will be discussed during the negotiations. (Andrius Sytas, “Estonia and Latvia look to purchase mid-range air defence from Germany,” Reuters, 21 May 2023)
 
THE UK
Government announces EUR 39 million to research antimicrobial resistance
On 22 May, the UK government announced a Global AMR Innovation Fund (GAMRIF) of EUR 39 million for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) research. EUR 25 million will be used to develop antibiotics and vaccines. GARIF aims to establish a Global Health Framework to fight against global health threats. The Framework will ensure global health security, revise global health governance, and strengthen global health systems. The Framework will promulgate the UK’s role as a leader in the field of science and technology. Through this funding, EUR 24 million will be provided to CARB-X, a global AMR research initiative over a period of four years. EUR 10 million will be given to Canada’s International Research Centre (IRDC) over a period of four years. The initiative will be launched by UK’s Health Minister Will Quince in the World Health Assembly for the year 2023-2025. (“£39 million for AMR research as UK launches Global Health Framework,” GOV.UK, 22 May 2023)

Pressure mounts on the Prime Minister to probe Braverman for breaking ministerial code
On 21 May, The Guardian reported that pressure mounts on Rishi Sunak to probe Home Secretary Suella Braverman for breaching the Ministerial code, as she was found asking the Home Office civil servants for special treatment after being caught speeding. Sunak is en route to the UK after the G7 summit in Japan. He will have to decide quickly whether to investigate or not. Meanwhile, a senior Tory MP commented that there is “no appetite” in NO 10 to defend her. Braverman is due to appear before MPs' Home Office questions on Monday, and the MPs are not up for her survival. Rishi Sunak, at the press conference towards the end of the G7 Summit, evaded answering the questions saying he had full confidence in her. The secretary was fired once earlier for breaking the code under Liz Truss’s government but was later reappointed by Sunak after six days. (“Pippa Crerar, “Sunak under pressure to launch ethics inquiry over Braverman speeding row,” The Guardian, 21 May 2023)
 
Spring Storm 23: Royal Marines demonstrate flexibility and capability in exercise
On 22 May, the UK Ministry of Defence said in its press release that members of 45 Commando maneuvered their HMS Albion in a planned beach raid scenario as part of Exercise Spring Storm 23. Exercise Spring Storm 23 is the largest annual military exercise conducted by Estonia for NATO forces. The commanding officer of HMS Albion commented that the exercise was a great proving ground to demonstrate the ship’s flexibility and ability to cooperate with the regional partners in times of need. The exercise allowed Royal Marines to practice an amphibious deployment, infiltrating hostile territory to secure information, confuse the enemy or strike a high-value target. In addition, more than 1500 UK troops are currently deployed in Estonia for the exercise. (“Royal Marines conduct beach raid in Estonia during NATO exercise,” Ministry of Defence, 22 May 2023)
 
TURKEY
Kilicdaroglu slammed for accusing Russia of meddling in presidential elections
On 22 May, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu slammed Kemal Kilicdaroglu for accusing Russia of meddling in the first phase of the Presidential elections. He gave no proof or details to substantiate his accusation, while Kremlin denied it outright. Cavusoglu said: “Mr Kilicdaroglu has been threatening Russia. It is wrong to undermine our ties with a country like that.” He also asked him to “be more serious” and refrain from hurling baseless accusations at other countries based on his intuitions. (“Top Turkish Diplomat Slams Kilicdaroglu Over Russia Meddling Claims,” Sputnik, 22 May 2023)